BY: SEAN WALLACE, SPORTS DEPARTMENT
Last season, what many deemed impossible became a reality. Capitals’ forward and captain Alex Ovechkin broke the NHL’s all-time goal record on April 6, surpassing Wayne Gretzky, who previously held the record with 894.
Coincidentally, Gretzky played 1,487 games to reach 894 goals, whereas Ovechkin played 1,486 to reach 894. No active skaters are close to breaking the record now, but a few could catch up in ten years from now.
David Pastrňák
The Bruins’ 29-year-old forward has 391 goals through 756 games. In his last four seasons, he stands as one of the league’s most prolific scorers.
His 0.517 goals per game rate is among the best of all time and better than both Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. He’s scored 191 goals over the last four seasons. That’s an average of just over 47 goals.
Can he keep this production going forward? Due to the departure of Brad Marchand and Charlie Coyle, Pastrňák’s job becomes more difficult, as he is now the primary threat for opponents. The future could be rough. It’s a stretch, but if he keeps that pace for his next twelve seasons, he could break the record.
Connor McDavid
In 712 games, the 28-year-old has 361 goals. He has three 40-goal seasons and multiple 30-goal seasons. The Oilers forward collects a haul of points every year but most of those come from assists.
He’s coming off a 100-point season, but 74 of those points came from assists. In 2022-23, he scored a career-high 64 goals but has not come close since.
McDavid’s strength is setting up his teammates on offense. His playmaking, vision and unselfishness make him one of the league’s most dangerous threats. He is a generational talent and will most likely finish his career as an all-around better hockey player than Ovechkin. However, in terms of goal scoring, he’ll need to be more selfish on the ice if he wants to break the record.
Leon Draisaitl
The 29-year-old has 399 goals in 790 games. The Oilers forward was last season’s recipient of the Rocket Richard Trophy with 52 goals.
He has a career-goal rate of 0.505 and is 499 goals away from breaking Ovi’s record. Over the past seven seasons, Draisaitl has four 50-goal seasons, three 40-goal seasons and an average of just over 46 goals a season.
Similar to Pastrňák, if he maintains that pace for the next twelve seasons, he could break the record. That’s a tough ask, but if Draisaitl stays healthy and finishes with plenty of 50-goal seasons, he may have a chance of breaking the record.
Auston Matthews
In 629 games, the 28-year-old has 401 goals. Out of every active skater, Matthews has the best chance of breaking the record. The Maple Leafs’ forward and captain has an outstanding pace and is still young.
Matthews has already recorded two 60-goal seasons. Before this season, the fewest goals he scored in a season was 34. His career goals-per-game pace of 0.638 is fifth best of all time, which is better than Ovechkin’s.
This season, Matthews missed time with upper-body injuries and scored a career-low 33 goals in 67 games. Can he stay healthy and consistent with his production? If he averages 48 goals a season for the twelve years, he could break the record at 39 years old. With a couple more sixty-goal seasons, which is easier said than done, Matthews would have a real shot at breaking the record.
Conclusion
If Pastrňák, McDavid and Draisaitl maintain their pace, it would still be hard for them to break the record at their current age. They would have to play over 1,700 games, which only six players have accomplished. However, Matthews has a realistic chance in ten years assuming his production does not fold, and he stays healthy for most of his career until he’s 39 years old. All of this is assuming Ovechkin plays one more season in the last year of his contract without any setbacks.
For those who believe the Great Eight is a one-trick pony, consider the following. Today, the goalies are marginally better. They are bigger, more athletic and have better technique than goalies in the 80’s. When comparing the league forty years ago, it is without question harder to score today. I’m not diminishing Gretzky’s talent, rather I’m trying to prove how impressive a feat this is for Ovechkin.
Wayne Gretzky is the greatest all-around hockey player of all time, but Alex Ovechkin is the greatest goal scorer of all time.
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